Michael Rogers: Personal Brand Strategy

Identity

Name: Michael Rogers

Title: Data Scientist. Applied Psychohistorian. Disciplined Dilettante.

Tagline: Individuals surprise. Populations rhyme.

Site description:

Psychohistory for the algorithmic age. Essays, ideas, and loose threads—written at the edge of chaos, where pattern meets noise and something interesting might emerge.

The Positioning

What makes this distinctive

You occupy an unpopulated intersection:

No one else writes from this combination. Most data scientists ignore history. Most historians ignore algorithms. You’re the bridge.

The Asimov connection

“Applied Psychohistorian” is your signature term. For the right people, it signals immediately: I use statistics to find patterns in human behavior at scale. For everyone else, it creates a question worth asking.

Psychohistory’s core premise—individuals are unpredictable, populations are not—is your intellectual home base. It’s statistical. It’s humble about individuals. It’s confident about aggregates.

The “Disciplined Dilettante” energy

This captures your breadth-with-rigor approach. You roam outside your lane (economic history, consumer psychology, company strategy) but bring statistical discipline to the wandering. It’s honest. It’s differentiated from “thought leader” posturing.

The Dialectic Introduction

If Jackson Dahl were introducing you:

“Michael Rogers is a data scientist, applied psychohistorian, and self-described ‘disciplined dilettante.’ He’s interested in why individuals surprise but populations rhyme—the patterns in human behavior that persist across centuries. He writes at mrogers.london, thinking out loud at the edge of chaos.”

Content Architecture

Three formats

Why “Residuals”

In statistics, residuals are what’s left after you fit a model—the unexplained variance. But any good data scientist knows: the residuals are where you find out if your model is wrong. They’re the signal hiding in the noise.

For a curated links post, this framing is perfect:

• These are the things that don’t fit your main narrative
• They’re leftovers, but often the most interesting leftovers
• It’s humble (these are scraps) but knowing (scraps matter)

Essay structure

1. Opening hook — Counterintuitive claim or surprising historical connection
2. Lightning primer — Brief context for non-experts (2–3 paragraphs max)
3. Core argument — Developed through 3–4 sections with clear headers
4. Historical/economic parallel — Connect modern systems to timeless patterns
5. Practical implications — What this means for builders/practitioners
6. Closing reflection — Open questions, “thinking out loud” energy

Example essay topics

• “What Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage Teaches Us About Recommendation Diversity”
• “The Preference Revelation Problem: Why Recommenders Struggle With What You Actually Want”
• “Fat Tails in Matching Markets: Why the Long Tail Matters More Than Average”
• “Walras in the Feed: How Recommendation Systems Clear Markets Nobody Sees”

Example Imagine topics

• “What if dating apps optimized for relationship longevity instead of engagement?”
• “The ‘Explore vs. Exploit’ problem in career decisions”
• “Imagining recommendation systems that reveal preference drift over time”
• “What would Adam Smith think about the TikTok algorithm?”

Visual Identity

Design philosophy

Modern type, nostalgic imagery.

The contrast is intentional: clean contemporary typography against 1970s airbrush and mid-century illustration. This signals “I’m bringing old ideas into new contexts”—which is literally your thing.

Color palette

This palette:

• Evokes aged paper, old books, economic history
• Distinctive from the blues/greens dominating tech blogs
• Warm without being saccharine
• Works with the vintage illustration aesthetic

Typography

Primary font: Rethink Sans

Why Rethink Sans works:

• Clean, geometric, modern—productive tension with vintage imagery
• “Rethink” has thematic resonance with your project
• Excellent readability at all sizes
• Weight-specific tracking built in

Optional: Serif for body text

For long-form essays (2,000+ words), consider pairing with a serif:

• Newsreader — Designed for screens, excellent readability
• Source Serif 4 — Clean, professional, free
• Literata — Warm, slightly quirky personality

Implementation:

• Rethink Sans for headlines, navigation, UI elements
• Serif for essay body text only

Spacing and layout

• Line height: 1.65–1.7 for body text
• Paragraph width: 65–75 characters max
• Section spacing: Generous whitespace between sections
• Single column: Reading focus, no sidebars

Image style guide

Based on your existing style guide, evolved for the brand:

Core aesthetic:

• Era: 1970s airbrush + mid-century travel poster
• Mood: Whimsical, nostalgic, optimistic with intellectual edge
• Influences: Vintage Apple (1980s), mid-century modern illustration, retro travel posters

Image types by content format:

Framework diagrams (for Essays):

• Consistent visual language: rounded shapes, terracotta/sage/gold accents
• Types: pyramids, flywheels, 2x2 matrices, timelines, flow diagrams
• Clean labels, minimal text
• Tools: Figma, Excalidraw with consistent templates

Historical imagery (for Essays with economic history angle):

• Sources: Wikimedia Commons, Library of Congress, Internet Archive
• Treatment: Light sepia or desaturated filter for consistency
• Use: Pair with economic history connections (exchange floors, historical economists, market scenes)

Speculative illustrations (for Imagine):

• Dial up whimsy (2.5–3 on your scale)
• More abstract, dreamlike
• Single strong concept visualized

Negative prompts (always avoid):

• Photorealistic people or faces
• Stock photo aesthetics
• Modern digital gradients
• Cyberpunk/neon
• Heavy AI artifacts
• Text overlays on images

Technical Implementation

Static site: Jekyll (current)

Keep Jekyll. It’s working, you know it, and it’s fast. Upgrades to consider:

1. Custom theme — Build on Minima or start fresh with your color palette
2. Typography — Add Rethink Sans via Google Fonts
3. Newsletter integration — Beehiiv embed forms on homepage and post pages
4. RSS — Ensure feed works for syndication
5. Analytics — Plausible or Fathom (privacy-focused)

Newsletter: Beehiiv

Architecture:

[Jekyll site] ← Canonical home for Essays, Imagine
      ↓
[Beehiiv] ← Email distribution + subscriber management
      ↓
[Subscribers]

Workflow:

1. Write and publish on Jekyll (canonical URL, SEO benefits)
2. Copy content to Beehiiv for email distribution (same day)
3. Add email-specific intro/outro if desired
4. Include link back to site for sharing

Content by channel:

Beehiiv setup checklist:

• Embed subscription form on Jekyll homepage
• Embed form at end of each post
• Set up web archive for Residuals
• Create email template matching blog aesthetic
• Configure double opt-in
• Plan welcome sequence (3–5 emails introducing your perspective)

Voice Guidelines

Tone

Signature phrases

Use sparingly but consistently:

• “At the edge of chaos”
• “Individuals surprise. Populations rhyme.”
• “Probably nonsense, but…”
• “What persists”
• “Thinking out loud”

What to avoid

• Thought leader posturing (“Here’s what most people get wrong…”)
• Unnecessary hedging (one caveat per claim is enough)
• Jargon without explanation
• Name-dropping without purpose
• “I’ve been thinking a lot about…” openers

Growth Path

Months 1–3: Foundation

• Publish 4–6 Essays
• Establish voice and visual identity
• Set up Beehiiv, start collecting subscribers
• Goal: 100 newsletter subscribers

Months 3–6: Rhythm

• Add Imagine and Residuals formats
• Consistent weekly publishing
• Guest on 1–2 podcasts (Dialectic target)
• Goal: 500 subscribers

Months 6–12: Expansion

• Cross-reference with other writers
• Build relationships in data science + econ history communities
• Consider first “signature essay” (definitive piece on core thesis)
• Goal: 2,000 subscribers

Year 2+: Optionality

• Evaluate paid tier (add content, don’t paywall existing)
• Consider community (Discord, office hours)
• Advisory/consulting opportunities may emerge
• Book proposal if thesis coheres

Quick Reference Card

When someone asks “What do you write about?”

“I’m interested in what doesn’t change about human behavior—even as the technology evolves. I write about recommendation systems, economic history, and why the problems we’re solving with algorithms today are centuries old.”

When someone asks “What’s an applied psychohistorian?”

“It’s a reference to Asimov’s Foundation. Psychohistory is the idea that while individuals are unpredictable, populations follow patterns you can model statistically. I try to apply that lens to recommendation systems and consumer behavior.”

When someone asks “What’s ‘edge of chaos’ mean?”

“It’s a concept from complexity science—the boundary between order and randomness where interesting things emerge. I try to write from that space: rigorous enough to be useful, exploratory enough to find something new.”

Last updated: December 2024 Version: 2.0